Sunday, November 9, 2008

Prediting Outcomes using linear regression (summary)

The method of linear progression is very accurate since using Rasmussen Reports predicted Barack Obama to win the state of North Carolina by about one point and he did so. Polls however aren't entirely accurate and should not be usedf to decide who the clear winner is but most times it gives you a good idea who is attracting more voters. To myself I would say this method is about 70% accurate but I don't know the exact percentages. This method's usefulness is very accurate if the leading candidate has a considerable margin however I would not acknowledge a leader in this particular method if the race was could be decided by a 2% or less of a margin.

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